Monday, June 12, 2017

Ready to buy a new(er) vehicle? Wait for the bust.

Today Mish agrees that 2017 is likely to host big "dot auto" bust.  Stage one of any bust is the boom.  Booms are unnatural growth events generally caused by providing the ability for consumers to pull forward consumption using debt.  As reported in these pages on several occasions, 6 and 8 year car loans along with other "deep subprime" financing terms (no down, no payment for the first n months, etc.) have gotten people to sign their lives away to the banks.  But when the recession begins and the jobs get cut, those without jobs will not make the payments on their cars.  They will hide them and keep them as long as possible until the repo man catches up to them.  That's because liberals are the ones who buy more car than they can afford when times are good and then cry the loudest when the repo man comes to take it during the bust.

Of course, I have been writing that the auto bust is coming for several months now in posts like this one.  Booms are the attack of the liberals and busts are the revenge of the savers.  IF you are a debt free prudent saver like me, wait for the coming bust.  Cars will be selling like water on the used market as banks struggle to generate whatever cash they can.  During wave A down they will be offering what seem like good deals.  And they will be good deals.  But I say hold out.  Nurse your old car along until we get that 3rd of C wave down.  Save your earnings, waiting until the banks are desperate for cash.  This cannot be the case until you see the likes of Car Max (ticker:KMX) on its knees begging for mercy.

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