While the general direction of this will likely turn out to be correct, I did a micro count over the weekend and from it a new count emerged which I think could be very nice to trade today. The new primary model is below.
It says that the gap was 3/3 and that pushes the rest of the numbers around as shown. So, today's AM rally in the markets should produce a blue 4 pullback into the $48 range and that should be bought near the opening bell because the model then suggests that the markets reverse early on and give up all the gains and go negative as UVXY hits lime 1 to actually finish the 5 wave motive sequence that began on the 17th.
After 5 waves up we should see it fall back a-b-c to lime 2. If you see that, dig into UVXY with both hands because it will likely mean that the model is correct and that we are going to see a 3rd wave up in UVXY play out into the afternoon. That could take UVXY into the high 60s or even into the low 70s.
Always use intelligently selected stops in these volatile trades and never bet more than makes sense for your trading style. EW gives you an odds advantage over the other guy but there are no certainties. If the model doesn't behave per below, it's likely wrong and so step back and regroup. Don't get rushed into making decisions! You should not have to be rushed if you have a model that tells you where you think the herd will be in the near future. Be patient and let the herd walk into your line of fire. There is no need to chase it if you have the means to predict its next likely location.
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