Friday, September 25, 2015

[ABX] update

The latest model from the backlink went bust quickly.  Instead of moving higher it actually put in a lower low.  So I'm reverting back to the general model below which expects a bottom in the $5 range.




If this is going to happen it should go down quickly.  It should rush to the bottom and then put in a vee and then rush back up because if this fools around down there too long, too many people will be able to get in at great depression prices.  So I expect a sharp vee bottom, perhaps even a unicorn tail style hit and run.

If this goes down here then HUI, which just recently hit 101, could momentarily flash crash down into the mid to high 70s.  This would just be an historic crash.  A dip to $64 would make it a drop of 90% from the peak, truly one for the record books.

But anyone who thinks gold is a pet rock is a blithering idiot because at some point the global money supply will go worthless in hyperinflation and people will still need a place to store their excess productive value.  Houses won't work, they are already too expensive.  Bonds won't work, rising interest rates will kill the nominal value of them causing a loss of capital.

Gold is the only thing that has any hope of credibly absorbing and storing the massive productive value of humanity.  But not at $1000 per ozt.  not at $2k either.  It will eventually have to be a much larger number.  And then we will see what is a pet rock.  If ever there was a sign that people have lost all respect for gold, that wall st article was it.  Those kinds of things always come 1-3 months before the actual bottom.

BE PATIENT but BE READY.  Very little time will be afforded for buying the bottom and I suspect we will see it within a week or two.


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