Sunday, September 20, 2015

[IBM] update

It's clear from the backlink that my model says IBM should hit the low $130s before one should consider going long the stock even for a short term trade:

 

While that is still my primary model and it is still in blue below, I am open to the alternate count shown below in red.  This seems a somewhat tortured count but a case can be made for its legality under the rules and so it must not be thought to be impossible.  In fact, that coming low could in fact be the bottom of 5 of C which would then lead to much higher prices for IBM, a new high even.  This would be possible in the inflationary case wherein personal spending power enters a monster depression due to lack of wages keeping up with asset price expansion in dollar denominated terms.  In other words, Avi, not EWI.

Please note that history teaches that, for most people, massive or even hyperinflation is a fate far worse than a deflationary crash.

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