Fleckenstein in 2-2015: hold your shorts until the fed loses credibility.

Bill Fleckenstein is always well worth your time to listen to IMO.  In this interview from February, he stated that he believes that as soon as markets begin to tank, the fed will step in again (QE4) but that at some point the market will just stop believing that the fed actually controls everything.  In essence, the curtain will be pulled back on the wizard of ozt and everyone will run away from margin and that will cause stocks to revert to the mean.

In this regard, Fleckenstein and I agree on something very basic about this market which is that it is driven by confidence and thus a con game.  Once confidence is lost, the con game is over.  The data continues to roll in and continues to be negative.  As you can see from that article, Mish does not believe that the fed will hike rates if the data continues to slide.  But the spring and summer consumption boom has not occurred and only two more months and we will be entering into the fall, so named because that is what often happens to markets during that dreary season (or so I'm told ;  ).

And so let's say that the data not only doesn't get better but rather gets worse.   Additionally let's say that TNX (10 year rates) continue to rise without the fed's permission.  It's not a big stretch of the imagination to see that this would cause loss of face, loss of confidence in the fed.  At some point I expect outright mocking of the fed by main stream media, perhaps even worse than the front runners in this are doing today.   Once the public mocking begins it will signal the end of this Ponzi market run. 

Well, recently, Fleckenstein went on record saying that the bear is loose and that buy the dippers will get hosed.  For him to come out at this time and say this is interesting given the Elliott wave count also says that collapse is coming.