[CJES] update

I modeled in the backlink that CJES was doing wave 2 or B and that is what we seem to have going on right now even though hindsight says I should have anticipated a deep vee 2nd.  Folks, we have a clear wave 1 or A up from my commodities bottoming call of late Aug and now a clear a-b-c retracement into the end of September which I think will not be able to create a lower low.  Something will happen and it will be treated as important news even though it will in fact not really be new news.  This should cause the commodities sector to bottom and given how badly oversold it is the gains should be fierce.

Is this really the bottom or just "a" bottom?  I don't know and neither does anyone else.  But the ave count suggests that some kind of significant retracement is coming within the next few days.  I plan to be trading CJES into that because I see $10 as the minimum likely bounce point and it could be much higher, all the way to $18.  Whether or not CJES eventually defaults on its junk debt and goes BK I cannot say but looking at the JNK ETF we are not yet at that point and so on the first whiff of news which the herd decides to take in a positive manner, the shorts are going to get creamed on this one.

Note: if this continues to plummet down to $2 into early October then the Aug bottom would only be 3 and the Oct bottom would be 5.  This is not my primary model but it could certainly happen.  I will not be betting the farm here, just 500 shares initially and then probably a total of 1000 shares when a confirmed bottom is in.  Thus a lower low will not hurt me due to small initial purchase size and I won't have to worry about trading it either.

Below is the zoomed in chart of the primary model.  I'd like to see the current pattern turn into a HT and then wipe out again tomorrow AM.  Either that or just wash out down to $3 into today's close at which time I would buy a first tranche.  By the way, my alarm just went off for PBR and now it looks like 5 waves up are following 5 waves down which is the reversal pattern in EW.  Buy the dip in PBR!