Commodities update [GLD] [ORIG] [GLNCY]

It sure seems like my view that they would sell commodities into very early October before a reversal is playing out.  For example, the 5 minute GLD chart below was really supposed to have bottomed at the gap fill but now it is below the 50 fib testing it from below.

The level of the prior 4th is $107.38 and I could see us getting potentially an intraday reversal there via a WC move down to the 61.8 fib.




Likewise they are selling ORIG like it is ready to declare BK instead of blowing away expected earnings for a couple quarters running.  Here is the recent worst case model that I presented:



In today's end of day extended session, the shares spiked down to $2 for a nanosecond, a level which could turn out to be very strong support. 


Because of this, I added another 1k shares to my position @$2.08.  I didn't go more because if this count is correct, then it would be most satisfying to see blue 5= length blue 1.  Another 10% loss and we will be there and if that happens then I'm going to drop another 10k into it because I think the odds will be very, very high that this has bottomed.  But $2 is often also the level that these things find massive support and it is also the level that represents well over 90% drop in value from the peak.  They hate it at $2.  They will love it again at $9.  That is the minimum target level for the coming bounce even if it will then collapse lower.  Think CJES some months ago.  It was destined to collapse but not before fulfilling its EW requirement for a trip to the prior 4th before beginning the next wave down.

Another reason why I think the bottom is near is today's action on Glencore.  I wrote about it for the first time ever yesterday indicating that it was an immediate buy and giving the near term ways it could play out.  These shares had momentarily kissed $2 in the AM pretrade that day as shown.  The very next day, it closed up 17% based on mgt assurances that they were not having solvency issues and that that they were considering taking the company private if the selling continued.  Of course, this could just be the 4th wave as I have not yet seen 5 up on this.  Anything lower than $2.20 from here should be considered a transition back into the range of wave 1 which means likely not 4 of 1 up but rather 4 of 5 down is in play.  But still this will likely play out in the next 2-3 trading days as all of the commodities are looking like they are very close to serious bottoming levels at this point.