[GLD] update

In the backlink I presented a bullish model for GLD that is still on track.  GLD is testing the top rail of the downsloping resistance line and, as expected, it has been very painful for commodities into the end of September.  October is going to turn all that around IMO and GLD will lead the way.



GLD is early enough in the reversal that few have bought into it, literally.  That lime green falling resistance line has held time and again but the wave count and the month boundary lead me to conclude that the odds for a breakout in the next few days are high.  This comes at a time when the oil services like ORIG are very near my current bottoming wave models and price targets.  Again, when gold reveals itself to be in a confirmed 3rd wave up, all the commodities are going to catch a breathtaking bid.



I see two main models as likely.  Either we gap up tomorrow AM and break out the top rail in a 3rd of 3 OR we sell off hard tomorrow at the open and then do an intraday reversal and then begin to move up.  I'm betting on the latter and I will be looking to buy back into JNUG tomorrow regardless of which model occurs.  In other words, if it gaps up I will buy the first 3 wave pullback. If it gaps down I will look for a bottom in the AM and then buy into the expected reversal.

Please keep in mind that this move down can hardly be viewed as unexpected.  After all, I bailed out on JNUG at $10.20 and I warned of a big pullback in AGI being predicted by the wave pattern.  So if you have not optimally traded JNUG during this time based on these posts, DON'T PANIC.  Leave panic to the sheeple.  A very, very significant bounce is coming to M+M.  Even had I stayed in JNUG instead of bailing at almost the exact recent top, I would be looking at the count right now and telling myself we are now much closer to a time to buy than a time to sell.

When GLD moves a percent, the triple juniors move many percent.  For now I'm going to continue playing UVXY long while the DJIA finishes 5 of 1 down.  Perhaps the miners begin moving up before DJIA bottoms.  I don't know.  But of late, when markets are down, miners have been down.  Perhaps tomorrow is decoupling day but commodities tend to extend their 5th waves according to Frost and Prechter so I'm going to just chill WRT M+M for now.  I will quickly change my tune if we get a fat gap up but one more small motive wave down to, say, JNUG $6.10-$6.20 would also tempt me greatly to step back in.

So I am looking for bottom in the markets before I get too excited about the miners again but I also realize that they do not have to be connected at the hip and indeed at some point I expect a clear divergence to take place.  I just worry that when the DJIA goes sub $15300 to finish wave 1 down that value priced M+M + Oil Svs get sucked down with the rest of the overpriced DJIA/S+P/$COMPX trash.  I would rather miss out on the initial gap up than partake of one final "fuck you" washout bottom in M+M.  

But make no mistake.  I am sitting in my camo hunting shack on the edge of the clearing and I can hear the foot falls of the herd heading in my direction.  Ole' painless jr. is out of the canvas bag and set up on the tripod just waiting for the little pretties to come stumbling in front of my sights.  It is my goal not to even expend the effort to point the barrel at them.  I want them to just walk into my slaughter.  Will I get all this wunderbar stuff?  Who knows?  I don't know!  Nobody knows the future.  But this is my plan and everyone needs to have a trading plan.