We got a bit of a bounce today but the count looks corrective still (expanded flay into blue 4). I still suspect that we get one more move lower into early October. That would be in line with my count for CJES. I have been cost averaging into a basket of volatile commodity stocks for several months now, moving very slowly at first with names like CLF and ORIG and others which I have been treating as nonexpiring call options on commodities. I know that the volatility in these will whipsaw the crap out of me if I try to keep up with too many of these so my bigger bets are in JNUG and those are trades. But my core holding of commodities is now about 50% of my account and I'm looking to begin seeing these go green in a big way over the next 6 weeks.
I repeat for the cheap seats: this is a great depression in commodities. It is so bad that it is causing drill rig count to collapse, sector consolidation is occurring and Glencore even just threatened to be taken private like Dell did during the last collapse. Basically, if the market is going to treat them so poorly they will just buy up all the shares at these firesale prices and go be a company without any need for all the rules and regulations associated with being a publicly traded company.
No comments:
Post a Comment