Thursday, September 17, 2015

[JNUG] update

At the backlink I provided the model below.



Today's action (below) was right in line with the model.  Unfortunately it did not trigger my $8.15 limit buy for additional shares but as I said in the backlink, I do have enough for now anyhow.

I want you to stop and think for a second, how did this guy have any clue whatsoever that we would get selling in the AM and then a higher high into the close?  Again, while EW is not a crystal ball, but it can raise your odds of winning to the degree that sometimes it can feel like one.  It's important to acknowledge its predictive powers while keeping emotions at arm's length because emotions blind you.

Per yesterday's model, I think this move was a 3rd wave because it took out both the lower and upper rails of resistance.  Because of this I would really like to see tomorrow AM be some kind of sideways retracement, perhaps even a horizontal triangle and then one more move up into $10.50 to finish off this motive wave.

Note that the model says we should be working on green 4.  Note also that green 2 was a vee.  So this is why I expect tomorrow's move to be sideways.  It doesn't mean I have to be right but it certainly does mean that this is not a random prediction or gut feel or something that someone who doesn't know jack shit about anything said around the water cooler.  I don't do random.

If we get the move into green 5 into the close on Friday, I'll head to the sidelines for the weekend and hope for a 20% swoon early next week.

If this goes below $9.20, the odds plummet that it will be a HT 4th and so in that case we need to consider that this might already count as 5 up.  But for now my model counts this as a 3rd.

No comments:

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More