Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Where's the deflation? [CLF]

I just read this article from Zacks (whose calls are generally pretty good IMO) and so I decided to look at the chart of Cliff's Natural Resources (ticker: CLF).  Usually I end up mocking the author of these kinds of articles but not this time.  I count the wave C of 2 pullback to be complete and I will be trading into this ASAP.  In fact, I think wave 1 up of a new bull market is likely in place and that a deep vee 2nd wave has now likely finished.  So a rapid move up into wave 3 is expected here.  Current price: $4.21.  Buy low, sell high.  My near term target is at least the level of the prior 4th which would be ~30.  That would be a monster percentage gain and these shares have done it before.

I really like this play because the current price is so near the recent low that stop loss can be set tight.  If my model is wrong I want to know it as soon as possible.  No reasonable trade is ever made without consideration of the EW entry point and stop loss point.  Failure to do this means trading on emotion = sucker waiting to get fleeced by the pump and dumpers who have access to all the trade data in real time (i.e. the Wall St. market makers).




For people who wonder when the deflation will arrive, look no further than metals, miners and materials.  These sectors have gotten killed and many of their charts lead me to believe that Jim Sinclair's "cost push inflation" may be coming sooner rather than later.   It has always been my view that we will see what I call a supernova economy.  First a deflation and then a massive inflation or even hyperinflation depending on one's definition.   It will be easier to screw retirees out of their government benefits if the numbers that they receive on paper don't change while the buying power of the cash they receive simply collapses.

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