[USLV] update

Once the bottom is in, USLV is going to be a screamer but per the backlink I have been questioning its bullishness.  I wrote, "All we can really say at this point is that it was almost an exact gap fill and that is generally bearish.  Usually, if the wave is going higher it will go past the gap and leave no doubt.  On the other hand this is an island reversal, supposed to be bullish.  It will not surprise me to find this move back down to the 12.50-13 range in order to put in a double bottom of some kind."


While it has not gone back below my commodities bottoming call, we have to putt for dough.  I would actually love it if USLV would do us the favor of tanking in 5 clear waves down to the $5 level per the red model.  That would be time to mortgage the house folks because the minimum bounce from that level would be $15 and it would happen most riki-tik.

While possible, I currently do not assign that the highest odds.  I think we are more likely not fully done with blue 3 yet which implies one more smallish (but still 20%) wave down to $10 or that this is going to do the inverted owl on us and put in an inclining double bottom at the blue rail.

While trying to call and catch the exact bottom is loads of sport, it will be clear when the tide has turned for this.  The top rail of this falling wedge (which I did not draw in) will be broken out of.  But if you are hoping any praying for any particular outcome, it should be blue 5 mentioned below because then you would be up in the 98 percentile odds of making a fat triple within a month.  Those kinds of odds on a asymmetrical bet don't present themselves every day so if that happens to play out then for G-d's sake, jump on it and don't be shaken out easily because it would probably mean that Avi's model for metals is in play (in other words, we are at the bottom of a monster 2nd wave in which will bottom in the next month and then lead to a bull market in metals and miners that is simply unprecedented in history.

We live in exciting times when the investing spectrum is viewed through the lens of the Elliott wave filter.  While everyone else will LIKELY be looking at their accounts crumble as their 401k and their hopes for a nice retirement race to an unholy Keynesian finish, EWers will at least have fantastic odds of making serious, serious bank. 

Unfortunately, experience tells me that this success cannot be shared too freely with others.  The herd just hates it when a few do not seem to be negatively affected when the herd is in trouble.  So I have learned to share what I know broadly on an anonymous basis but only sparingly with friends who I think are mature enough to understand this.  I suggest you do the same. 

Even good people who are fully immersed in the herd will turn on you.  They won't even know they are doing it and you cannot explain it to them.  They will not understand that you see something they do not.  It has always been thus and we are not going to change it.  The thing that allows a school of fish to turn in unison, a flock of birds to appear as a single morphing entity when viewed from afar and of course the Blue Angel fighter pilots to do such amazing coordinated close quarters tricks is the looking left and looking right in real time and staying in your place.  The herd is quick to stomp down anyone who does not conform.