It's hard to say where we are in this ugly mess but if it is tracking the DJIA (which it does not have to do in lock step) then this is a 5th wave which, after it peaks, will fall a-b-c down hard. Perhaps as low as $45. So my stops are now set just under today's gap up which would be about 16% if I get taken out.
So to be clear, my current model is that we are now in 3 of 5. Under this model we could easily see the $84 target mentioned here. But I am guaranteed the 16% from today's AM pop because of my stops. Not to put too fine a point on the value of EW, but in this post I admitted that I bailed on RUSL into the close and used the winnings to increase my UVXY. I wrote, "I took all my winnings and put them into UVXY. I'm hoping for 20% there tomorrow but I could envision possible outcomes where things could get crazy quickly."
UVXY is up 17.56% as I write and while I am guaranteed 16% I will certainly sell into this strength when I perceive that 5 of 5 of 1 down is done in the DJIA.
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