[ORIG] - a September to remember.

In the backlink I modeled another move down to bottom within the red circle.



Zooming in on that post to see the indicated bottoming rages, the arrow points to $2.45



 The chart did in fact make it down to$2.55 before reversing upward dramatically.  While this is good evidence that a bottom is likely in, I do not want to discount the EW guideline that length of wave 5 is generally the length of wave 1 when 3 is the extended wave (which it certainly was in this case).  The light blue vertical upper left is the length of blue 1.  Cloning and copying to what I mark as the end of blue 4 and thus the beginning of blue 5 (lower right) we see that considerable downside is still possible in this wave count as green 5 of blue 5 plays out should that be the decision of the herd.

It does not have to happen but should we see it we should recognize it for what it is: blind stupid uncontrolled panic out of shares of a company which is making tons of cash with a PE of deep sub 2 and which just recently cut its divvy in order to get out of some debt (forgave a loan to DRYS in exchange for a bunch of shares).  So it is a great financial story in that it makes money, beat earnings handily and is conservatively paying down debt and reducing share float while the shares are in the toilet.  This is essentially a share buyback.  Buybacks of bubble shares is liberal behavior but reducing the float at a time when the shares are selling at BK prices is very, very conservative.  This strategy is going to pay off in the end, tortoise and hare style.  At some point after the oil prices climb again and this thing is spewing cash like there was no tomorrow, the divvy will be reinstated and at a high rate.  That is going to bring the buyers back at higher prices just as quickly as divvy suspension sent them running at the bottom.

In the model below, a higher high than red 1 is likely the signal that my recent commodities bottom call was in fact correct.  The call was done on Aug 28th and it pointed to the 26th as either a significant bottom or in fact the final bottom.  Look what happened to ORIG since then.  If that wasn't the bottom then it certainly was a major bottom because it then popped nearly 50% in a matter of days.

Coincidence?  Really?  I personally don't believe in them.

One way or the other this is setting up to be a September to remember for the global commodities markets.