Monday, September 7, 2015

[FXI] is likely ready for a bounce.

First off, nobody but an Elliottician would even think of buying Chinese stocks right now.  Fear is running high there.  I don't let the fear affect me.  The model (and its built in stop loss point) is all that matters.  Check the backlink and you will see the model below.



Current snapshot is below.  So we are right in the wheelhouse of the expected bounce.  It should occur in 3 waves and it should have a 5-3-5 move to it.  If this continues down on Monday then we know that red 5 is still playing out but that is my alternate model.

If my primary model is correct, this could bounce harder than many imagine, all the way up to the 61.8 fib in order to lure back in all those who got scared out.  Keep in mind that I turned bearish at the top.  I am not just someone reacting to the herd think in real time.  Again, the credit goes to RN Elliott for his discovery.  I'm just using what he taught us.  The EW model based approach gives something tangible to gauge progress against.  Gut feel, which also includes so called fundamentals analysis, never saw this collapse coming.

The possible turn down points are the usual fib levels.  The 61.8 fib would close a lot of gaps but at the very least I expect a trip to the 38.2 fib.

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