Actual is below. This is a good example of how EW is good at predicting likely turning points if you have the full wave count, and fairly good at predicting future price point of the turn if all you have is the history leading up to a 4th wave.
Said differently, the herd seems to have less control over what it does than how it eventually does it. And how it does it will affect how long it takes to play out. This is why my price target for a major bounce was only 50 cents off the actual bottom (5%) a full 9 weeks in advance but the amount of time it took to get there was off considerably. Keep this in mind when using charts to set up for options plays. While I eventually expect my Jan 2015 GE $13 to be sold for a profit, I was in fact way too early with the purchase even though I split the purchase up over a period of time. Once in the contract it's difficult to get out without losing somewhere between 20 and 60% simply because of the illiquidity of these markets making for a huge spread.
At this point there is heightened awareness in the herd but not outright panic. Right now this FAZ move could still be counted as a 3 wave move to the level of the prior 4th. Thus, nobody is panicking into the shares. This, I think, will change because the banks and bankrupt financials should lead us DOWn.
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