Did Credit Suisse just inadvertently call the bottom on the drillers? [SDRL]

This is my first post on SeaDrill (ticker SDRL).  As usual, I don't know a damned thing about the company "fundamentals" because since they are unknown and unknowable they just don't matter.  Price action in the wave count is what will best indicate when the herd is moving into and out of stocks.  Why?  Because shares that don't have any contractual requirement to pay a dividend simply have no intrinsic value.  They they are just another form of fiat currency.  And no company will guarantee you that they will pay a divvy.  The divvy comes and goes at the whim of the board.  Thus there is no intrinsic value or implied store of wealth.  Stock market shares have been and always will be gambling whether or not the market participants understand it.

I am not recommending SDRL because I have no idea about the troubles it might be having.  I don't know if they make money or bleed cash.  I don't care because the wave count is all that matters.  So the only reason I'm doing this post is because I think Credit Suisse just called the bottom of the drillers with a "Cramer Moment".

By this, I mean that they expressed a very strong opinion which is in line with what the herd is doing but which occurs right at the point where the EW count says a major reversal is likely happening.  My most recent Cramer humiliation was a doozy.  He was telling people to buy the home builders on Aug 17th.  I read his emotional crap on the 19th and immediately wrote my post linked to above.  In my post I unabashedly wrote, "I'm counting this as a rising wedge in e wave throw over which is corrective and which will reverse downward with gusto within 2 weeks.  That will create a massive declining double top" (and thus) "his advice will IMO turn out to be either very bad or simply as mal-timed as humanly possible.".

What happened next is why you should always choose model based predictions over gut based predictions no matter how many television shows you get to be on.  As you can see, on the exact day of my call-out on Cramer, Toll Brothers (A major home builder) peaked and then lost almost 20% of its market cap over the next 5 trading days.  Pwned, Cramer.



OK, back to SDRL.  The linked article says that drillers might have a 2018 or 2019 recovery so maybe you can keep them in mind until then.  But the author, Ben Levisohn, is very clear in his opinion that whatever you do, DON'T buy SeaDrill.  Well, according to my model, Levisohn's emotional call will likely soon cost his readership dearly.  I model blue [2] as having bottomed on the 4th and thus the next wave should be a 3rd or a C wave up to higher highs.  Keep in mind that a measly $3.50 move up from here is a 50% gain.

Folks, I might turn out to be wrong on this call.  After all, EW is about odds and not certainties.  But if my model is wrong then I will know nearly from Tuesday's open.  That doesn't mean it will be far wrong but in the event that it is wrong by 1 penny it will be on me to show a new valid model that indicates bullishness is warranted.  There is no emotion here.  There is only a model and it will be right or it will be wrong.  No excuses, no shades of grey.  Cut and dried.

This is a massive difference relative to traditional "investing" where people pay good money to listen to someone's opinion about something that they really have no clue.