[INTC] update

I've taken multiple swings at both Intel and Microsoft over the past year, always wrong.  I should have known that they would find a way to stay up until the broader indices were ready to roll over.  In the case of Intel, I should have more carefully considered the fact that it had not yet reached the level of the prior 4th.  This real time prediction of tomorrow's stock charts is not an easy task, let me tell you.  The best I can offer is odds and not certainties.  Still, that's all any informed gambler could ever want, hope for or ask for.  There are no 100% certainties in dealing with the herd.  99% of the time if a lion growls the herd stampedes but 1% of the time, the lion gets gored for having a big mouth.

Having acknowledged these past failings and hopefully learned just a bit more (but never everything) about how the herd moves, I want to say again that I think Intel has very high odds of being at a peak right now.   Let's start with my previous Intel update in which I modeled that a 5th wave had just formed.  In retrospect, that call was soon invalidated by a higher high.  Still, I think my call was right headed (although not exact) and the charts below will tell you why.

The most important new information I can offer is that the Intel chart has now formed a rising wedge.  Each of the waves of the big expanding wedge that has been forming since 2009 should consist of 3 waves - each being A-B-C.  Per the proprietary indicator that I floated in these pages some months ago, rising wedges have been almost exclusively 3rds or Cs.  For this reason I think we are looking at C of 5 right there in the red circle.  It climbed to the level of the prior 4th.

Below is a zoom in of just the rising wedge.  To be a little conservative, this could either be 5 of C or 3 of C.  A higher high from here will mean it was 3 of C but at this point I'm betting against that even though I would like to see a bit of a larger throw over on this 5th wave than we actually got.  It really depends on what happens early next week.  But I honestly see this rising wedge as being too large a structure in the chart above to just be the 3rd.