Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Tomorrow should bring the start of some big selling to the markets.

In yesterday's TVIX post I modeled that today was a recovery rally day for the markets as they complete an a-b-c into wave 2 (and thus not good for TVIX).  The light gray a-b-c suggestion turned out to be pretty close.  Wave 2 likely finished today or very nearly so.  The wave did not pull all the way back to the ~$2.65 range which would have been the level of the prior 4th as well as the blue line below which is the 61.8% fib.  Instead, it only got back as far as the 50% fib at $2.71.  Maybe it is done already and maybe there will be a rapid morning move down (head fake) followed by a rapid reversal higher.

After selling off in anticipation of today's pullback, I heeded my own words from yesterday's post which I highlighted below: "What would be very bullish would be if it gets down there very quickly in the AM and then reverses in the afternoon to close higher as wave 3 up plays out.   But that is a lot to ask for so don't be surprised if it takes the full day for TVIX to retrace.  I would treat any such dip as a buying opportunity, especially if it has a typical 3 wave retracement shape of a-b-c.".  After seeing the a-b-c down I bought TVIX near the close today and will likely ride out any head fakes down tomorrow AM should they occur as long as they do not significantly exceed the 61.8% fib.

If ever a high odds time were to own TVIX, I think it is right here, right now.  Nothing is confirmed until TVIX takes out the Aug 2014 high of $4.28 but everything looks right for this to happen over the next several weeks.  Once TVIX obtains a higher high than $4.28 then a lot more people will be looking to buy crash insurance and TVIX should do very, very well in that environment.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Great call good sir! Appreciate the posts!

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