In yesterday's TVIX post I modeled that today was a recovery rally day for the markets as they complete an a-b-c into wave 2 (and thus not good for TVIX). The light gray a-b-c suggestion turned out to be pretty close. Wave 2 likely finished today or very nearly so. The wave did not pull all the way back to the ~$2.65 range which would have been the level of the prior 4th as well as the blue line below which is the 61.8% fib. Instead, it only got back as far as the 50% fib at $2.71. Maybe it is done already and maybe there will be a rapid morning move down (head fake) followed by a rapid reversal higher.
After selling off in anticipation of today's pullback, I heeded my own words from yesterday's post which I highlighted below: "What would be very bullish would be if it gets down there very quickly
in the AM and then reverses in the afternoon to close higher as wave 3
up plays out. But that is a lot to ask for so don't be surprised if it
takes the full day for TVIX to retrace. I would treat any such dip as a
buying opportunity, especially if it has a typical 3 wave retracement
shape of a-b-c.". After seeing the a-b-c down I bought TVIX near the close today and will likely ride out any head fakes down tomorrow AM should they occur as long as they do not significantly exceed the 61.8% fib.
If ever a high odds time were to own TVIX, I think it is right here, right now. Nothing is confirmed until TVIX takes out the Aug 2014 high of $4.28 but everything looks right for this to happen over the next several weeks. Once TVIX obtains a higher high than $4.28 then a lot more people will be looking to buy crash insurance and TVIX should do very, very well in that environment.
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1 comment:
Great call good sir! Appreciate the posts!
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