Given that the prevailing model of the gold chart is that wave 4 of A completed, the big sell off in gold of late be part of 5 of A. Target price for gold wave A is somewhere between 950 and 1100. After that bottoms, expect a *big* rally in gold and a small fortune to be made in JNUG.
So the question is, where are we in that 5 of A wave. The chart below is JNUG 45 minute. I am modeling that the bottom of 3 of 5 is happening today and that JNUG should rally to the ~20 level over the first part of next week in order to form [4]. But after that I expect a washout into [5] which will have all the "fundamental" followers of gold crying the blues about manipulation, market is unfair, etc. Of course, oil is going down too of late so is gold really getting picked upon or is the global dollar based credit slowing down and threatening to reverse a bit? Less dollar denominated credit should lead to a smaller dollar money supply and thus a higher valuation of the dollar.
But in the short term, the Euro has gotten smashed and it appears to be time for a Euro rise, dollar fall and gold bounce.
Bottom line: current price on JNUG is $15.53 and I'm looking for a short term bounce to ~$20.
Friday, September 19, 2014
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