Monday, September 29, 2014

Deflation about to show up in the oil patch. Can you DIG it?

DIG is the ticker for proshares 2x bullish oil and gas ETF.  It has rallied from $18 all the way up to $90 since the fed began trying to offset deflation in 2009.   These shares have peaked IMO.  I think this is the case based on the chart of DUG which is the inverse of DIG.  The DUG ETF is 2x short oil and gas.

Below is the DUG chart which shows that oil and gas have had a big payday since 2009 (remember DUG is inverse...).  Keep in mind that this has been taking place while gold and silver have been crashing.  So anyone who thinks gold is a commodity, please justify how oil and gas go up while gold goes down.  I have a long standing prediction that says before this collapse is over, gold begins to be remonetized by the market.  In other words, just like Apple and Google are laughing while the FBI whines about their new encryption, gold and silver will be remonetized despite government attempts to distract people from the historical money roles of these metals.  I think at some point, gold and silver will again be recognized as the only real money in the world.  Everything else, as JP Morgan (the man) said, "is not".

In any case, I scanned through the chart and found a triangle followed by a falling wedge and have applied a wave count to the series based on these landmarks.  I suspect that oil and gas will double top and thus DUG will double bottom (inverted owl) as shown below.   This should be good for a bundle before the deflationary crash is over.

If this assessment flies in the face of conventional thinking (i.e. that oil and gas should go up during war time) then that is fine because another of my long standing predictions is that during the end days of the debt Ponzi, things that used to work year in, year out, begin to not work anymore and in fact many will have the opposite effects than expected.  That is because people have mistakenly attributed news to many markets for decades except the news which matters which is the ebb and flow of the money supply.  Nobody has experienced a credit collapse like the one facing the world today and so who can possibly have experience with how things will react to it?

In any case, I have not followed the oil patch for years, don't consider myself any kind of expert on it, don't have any idea what current events are going on there (besides Israel striking natural gas recently and the obvious Russia-Europe heating gas connection) and my model could be all wet.  I'm simply going by some simple indicators as mentioned above.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

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