Thursday, September 25, 2014

Bullish divergence between metals and miners.

In yesterday's SLV update I noted that SLV was sitting on long term support.  Today it broke down below that line while JNUG climbed almost 6%.  It tells me that SLV is likely creating a significant bottom at this point.  Still, M+M are not out of the woods until metals and miners both agree on the upside.  It's possible that JNUG will turn into a falling wedge with a strong bottom into October and set gamblers up for massive percentage gains per the model below.

Again, nobody can predict the future but this would be a very common way to put in a significant bottom.  It might be a 3rd wave meaning a bounce into 4 and then a swoon into 5 but the bounce would be major percentage points, likely taking back all of the losses since the start of the diagonal.

This is, of course, assuming that the correct wave count for metals really is that we are in 5 of A right now.  We could be in 5 of some kind of C as floated in the link above.  Nobody knows (odds not certainties) for sure even with the best models because the herd is fluid.  Thus the best you can do is set triggers for buying and for selling and to not be surprised so that emotions don't rule your trading.

But I will say it again: IFF JNUG swoons into an ending diagonal/falling wedge with a throwunder, I'm scooping it up with both hands and I will be very, very difficult to shake (loose stops).  Silver bears are probable 97 or98% as of today and that is just not sustainable folks.  Something is going to snap with a very loud sound.  These kinds of bearishness lead to multimonth rallies if not outright bull markets and when metals go bullish, JNUG is going to go absolutely nuts to the upside.


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