SLV at significant support right now.

The prevailing wave count is that silver and gold are going to finish 5 waves down, then bounce a-b-c, then go 5 more waves lower with gold eventually bottoming around 750/ozt.  This could well happen but I also want to look at all the alternatives I can think of.

SLV is at significant support right now.   If it breaks below this, it could really plunge.   Still, if stocks begin to plunge then people might consider hard assets a good idea, especially after the big pullback in gold and silver of the past couple years.

What if, instead of gold and silver working on A down, they are already done with C of 4 as shown in the expanding wedge model below.  That down sloping orange line should act as strong support (or a clear sell signal if breached to the downside. 

The wave from 2009-2001 was clearly motive, but what of the wave back down since the early Q2 2011 peak?  Does that look motive to you?  It could easily be an a-b-c correction down into wave 4 of an expanding wedge.  In such triangles wave 4 must fall into the region of wave 1 and here we see that happened.  The lower blue rail is just hanging there based on only 1 reference point but if we were at the end of the silver bear right now then a bisection of the wedge would look pretty symmetrical.

In any case, this is not currently my primary count but it could some day turn into my primary count which is why I continue to own physical gold and silver bullion coins.

If this is going to bounce, it must show some conviction buying pretty soon but I will not hang onto my trading juniors long if it breaks below that orange support.  It should be another asymmetrical bet: big upside if I'm right, little downside if I'm wrong and a clear trigger to indicate if I should continue holding or sell.