$COMPX model update

In my primary model, $COMPX had 5 waves up and then threw over wave 5 before coming back down into the channel.  It then barely underthrew the lower channel before bouncing back up into the channel.  I really don't like that behavior.  I would rather see the lower channel hold support on the first attack of it and then bounce up into wave 2 and then have wave 3 break it down for real.  While the left model remains my primary model, I now have questions about it and will not take anything for granted until I get confirmation of major breakdown.

Confirmation could be a major gap down on Monday which is what I would expect from the 1-2, 1-2-3-4-5, 3-4-5 pattern.  In other words, a 3rd of 3rd should be on deck.  So if we get something as shown on the right, perhaps I got the rails wrong on the rising wedge.  Perhaps what I have as 5 is really 3, the move down since then is wave 4 and then wave 5 occurs as shown with October holding the real peak as shown on the right.  One thing that this new right hand model has going for it is the sharp wave circled in blue.   These kinds of waves are typically B waves.  So it would be 3-a-b-c-4.  A 3 wave move would be part of the internal structure of the triangle.

Most Elliott wave followers are using the left hand count but I warn you not to get too caught up in external advice.  Count for yourself so that you are not shocked when the herd tries to pull a fast one on you.  Neither of the completely different scenarios below would shock me and I have clear triggers in place based on what happens on Monday.

Regardless of which of these occur, the markets are going to take a major shelling within a week or two.   There are just too many things going on right now, too much fluidity for markets to remain calm and there is no such thing as a melt up at this point.  When panic comes it will be panic selling, not panic buying.