$COMPX update - Does wave 3 down begin tomorrow?

Today's $COMPX bounce came right up to the 50% fib level of the prior decline.  It can still climb to the 61.8% fib level before getting really worrisome for shorts but it does need to be watched closely.  Right now I still maintain a bearish wave count of 1 down and then wave 2 up.  IFF this count is right it means that $COMPX should roll over with gusto over the next couple days into a 3rd wave down.

While a valid bearish count is clearly still in play, today's rally was broad based with a 5:1 advance decline ratio in the $COMPX.  There were some notable losers like Sears (SHLD) which plummeted 9% but it was not enough (yet) to discourage the ridiculous optimistic mood of the herd yet. 

Today's $COMPX move can be counted as an a-b-c bounce.  If tomorrow results in a higher high than today's high then I think that count has to change from being corrective a-b-c to impulsive 1-2-3-4-5.  That would point to an eventual higher high than 4610.  In other words, the smart short covers at 4560 and does not buy back into the subsequent dip back to the level of the prior 4th.  Instead, he waits to see if the blue path below (further north until the blue line and then throw over and then come collapsing back down) will play out.  Yesterday's low could have just been a big 4th wave throw under (unusual in size though it would be).

A lower low than yesterday's low will put the chart into the region of the July rally and thus add weight to the notion that the big roll over is now happening.