BBRY is now at an important inflection point, negative bias.

Here is my first post on BBRY which was made at $6.10, very near the Dec 2013 bottom of $5.40.  Since that post, BBRY has skyrocketed in percentage terms to as high as 11.60, nearly a double from my first value call.  Today's post is being written to point out that BBRY shares are at a major inflection point.  The current action could be interpreted as a declining double top following the 4th wave peak of an expanding triangle.  Should this count prove to be correct, the next year is going to cut the value by at least 66% percent over the coming year.  In that case, the shares will likely finish the mania chart by closing below where they began back in 2002 (represented by the black horizontal line).  The jury is still out on this one but the bias is now negative.   If the orange line can be broken and a higher high mad than black 4, the odds of the BBRY chart being a falling expanding wedge collapse quickly.  But if that declining double top holds then the next move down should be pretty sudden. 

Given that I think the broader markets have peaked, I have to give weight to the collapse scenario.  If I were holding these shares I would sell right now speculatively and only buy back if they could generate a higher high than black 4.  When BBRY does bottom in the $3 range it will likely be a strong buy because I do think that the new CEO, by cutting heads aggressively and getting the team back to work, has saved the company from BK.  But a falling tide sinks all ships and with the retail sector looking toppy it is going to be tough going for everyone but especially for a turnaround play.  But BBRY has one big thing going for it: no debt and a big cash pile.  Keep that in mind if the shares head back down to $3 as I am currently expecting them to.

Of course, a break out of the top rail quickly negates this view.  Odds, people, not certainties.  Play the odds because there are no guarantees.  Not from me, not from the government, not from anyone.