Disney completes massive C wave using rising wedge.

In line with my observation that rising wedges are 3s or Cs, DIS shares have just broken down below the lower rail of a large ending diagonal.  Folks, run away screaming from these scary shares as box office receipts are collapsing.  This is about as good a shorting setup as you get.  The count is perfect on this one and it provides more confidence to my current model which indicates that the entire bull market since 2009 has just (finally) finished.

Disney is clearly a business that benefited from a rising money supply.  When money is too easy to come by, people tend to piss it away.  Discretionary spending skyrockets.  If you go to the movies today, expect to spend $30-$35 bucks for a couple and it only goes up from there for families with kids.  This is just too expensive given that the buying power of the general public is declining.  In addition, people now have mini theaters at home and so they will "make do" with cheaper entertainment options.

Theme parks are clearly struggling due to the declining middle class and so they are targeting more "high end" experiences in order to make up for the decline of the rank and file spender.  You can always spot a revenue decline happening by these kinds of strained antics.  Of course, even the "rich" will stop paying up like this once they stop feeling so rich.  Remember: much of the wealth disparity is just accounting entries.  The rich feel rich because their Madoffian asset account statements tell them that they are rich. When the assets in these accounts deflate we will find that many who considered themselves rich are just as much victims of the fed's pump and dump as anyone else.  It is difficult to spot a bubble when you are living the dream...  Dreams always seem like they will last forever.

Disney is the high end entertainment company and so you would rightfully expect them to hold out the longest before rolling over.  Speaking of entertainment options, don't overlook the opportunity to take a leveraged short against DIS while it is still very, very near an all time peak.  I like the Jan 2017 45s here.  You have a good long time to allow the irrational exuberance bleed out of these shares which were just $15 during the market lows of 2009.  What has changed for Disney since then?  NOTHING.  Disney's share price rise simply reflected the feel good effect of fed stimulus which, of course, was never going to last forever.



At the other end of the spectrum, I commented before on Seaworld crashing.  For the record, if I did to animals what Seaworld does to Orcas, I would be jailed for animal abuse.  I predict that before this crash is over, Seaworld will be forced to release their Orcas back into the wild and to stop catching new ones for their shows.  Six Flags entertainment is the middle player here and so while it is not as bad off (yet) as Seaworld, it is clearly already deep into bear market territory having fallen from its mid 2014 peak of $43 down to $34.33 today.  I only see significantly more share price losses by the end of 2015.