Sunday, September 21, 2014

Metals and miners might try to get tricky to the upside here.

Common wisdom is that gold short stroked 5 of E of 4 of A and is now working on 5 of A.  Everyone was expecting E of 4 to play out and thus it couldn't.  The market simply cannot go in a particular direction if all it sees are snapping jaws in the waters that it must cross to get there.  It can avoid touching that base but this generally only happens at the end of a trend IMO, not very often during 4th waves.  So I think the herd might still be trying to find a way to complete E of 4.  If that is true then the model below shows that now would be the right time to do that.  If the chart goes below red b then the opportunity is lost.  But Friday GLD ended with an ending diagonal which could make it a 3rd or a C and a C is what would be needed in order to form d of 4.  If this count is still alive, it should rebound strongly and JNUG will be the big winner.

So the asymmetrical bet here is to buy JNUG  in the $14-$15 range after you count 5 waves down (should either already have happened or will happen sometime Monday).  If GLD is to hit red e/black 4 then JNUG will at least double and perhaps triple from these levels.  Even if the move to red e is not the cards, you should at least enjoy a nice pop to red 4 (as labeled above) in an a-b-c move because the chart is almost done with a 5 wave sequence down.  Wave red 5 (not shown above) will equal red 1 when GLD is $114.

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