HPQ update

It looks like the model from my previous post on Hewlett Packard is playing out fairly close to expectations.  Below is the current chart.  It is now in the process of trying to break down that upper rail.  While it is possible that this is a back test from above that will hold, the majority of rising wedge 5th wave back tests do not hold.  The entire concept of the wedge leads us to an eventual tip where by the market has to either $hit or get off the pot.  Usually the rally is abandoned in these cases and I suspect that it will not be different this time.

HPQ is currently a market leader.  If it breaks back into that channel, it will not be doing it solo.  It will be in good company.  Take it as a warning or as an opportunity depending if you are long or short.  The minute it breaks through, the markets are a good short.  If it holds the line or breaks down and then breaks back up and out again, this view would have to be revisited.