TVIX update: beware the likely whipsaw.

After a few days on the sidelines playing JNUG/JDST, I bought into TVIX again today after the $COMPX kissed 4400 and then fell over like someone shot it.  The VIX is at historic lows and TVIX has gotten creamed because of it.  Now that we are very likely near a major turn, the goal will be to shake anyone out that will be shaken.  The best way to do this will be with scary whipsaw and so the chart COULD be setting itself up to do just that using the potential count below.

First off, this is not my primary count yet which is why I'm holding TVIX overnight.  That little bundle near the top rail at blue 4 could be a 4th wave which will break upwards and out tomorrow.  But it could also be telling us that the next wave to come is the last wave of the current formation and if that is the case then we can expect this to end up as an expanding triangle.  Ending diagonals generally occur at the end of a run.  If a triangle is going to appear at the start of a run it is often an expanding triangle as opposed to a contracting one.  This results in whipsaw (and thus market participant fear) right at the turns.  If the chart heads down tomorrow you might want to hold on a bit lower than $3 because this 5th wave looks custom designed to take out the stops below $3.  Once done, it should quickly break back up int the channel, causing those who just sold to re-buy. Then after another fake break out attempt, one more wave down to see if more sellers can be found.

By the way, all the internal waves should be a-b-c including the straight line I drew down to blue 5.

If you see this end of wave whipsaw, be not dismayed!  It is a sign that TVIX is most likely ready to turn up and that they need to shake and weak hands possible before changing direction.  The initial move off the bottom should be fairly quick in order to leave as many stragglers behind as possible.