It would require a market rally into the holiday weekend which is a very typical thing to do. Only after the market participants come back does the reality of the bubble start to show up in rapidly falling prices. That's just an observation, not a model. Below is a model. If we get a little a-b-c move back up to $3.10 without showing any real breakout strength then I will probably sell TVIX because it will likely mean that this recent thrust down was just A of C of 5. If it goes below $3.00 SELL!!! Why take a 15-20% hit in order to save a $10 trade? My stops are in at $2.99 but I will just sell outright if the chart doesn't show some real strength tomorrow. I am not going to sit through an ending diagonal with this. No way no how. If it happens I will just load up on more shares with the same cash in a few days due to the lower price.
We have our trigger conditions folks, now is the time to show discipline. I do not recall markets selling off into a holiday. It's the 2nd day after traders return that they generally throw in the towel. The day IS coming. Look at today's Tech Ticker video of Robert Shiller. He was right there calling the top back in 2007 as well, very good timing. I have not heard him talking like this until now. He has been far more reserved in his opinions until this interview. His word carries serious weight with the herd. The herd might not show it until after the holiday weekend, but the sell off is coming. Another thing: since government is worried about killing off the little guy, it is now attacking its own banks. It is starting in the marginal countries like UK but it will come to the states as well. Banks make easy money creating credit from thin air and loaning it out. Cutting back on that revenue stream is going to crush the banks not just in the UK but all over.
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