Per this post I went to the sidelines on TVIX in order to let wave 2 play out. I'd like to see a 61.8% retracement. I think we will see it tomorrow. If we don't get it, a higher high on TVIX is clearly a buy signal. These major turning points can be a bit maddening though. The herd is milling about on the banks wondering whether to plunge into the croc filled river to the north or to turn around and head back to the southern feeding grounds. While there are plenty of signs and signals, I have not seen the kind of panic that tells me that the herd has finally changed direction from north to south. We should see it pretty soon and if we don't I will be wondering if the ending diagonal is going to provide a 2nd confirmation at all. I'm not sure we have one more wave down but it will not surprise me either. In fact, this could go all the way down and form an inclining double bottom for all I know.
What it cannot do is hit a lower lower without busting the current model (which otherwise seems so strong on so many fronts). If the last spike a few days ago was not the peak then just go to the sidelines and wait for the next entry point. We are very close in terms of time but it is not impossible for TVIX to go down to $2 before hitting a real bottom. I don't model it that way but I could see it. $2 seems to be a magical number for bottoming in the same way that going up 10x seems to be the limit for most big bounces off of capitulation lows.
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