Always look for the turns! Metals and miners update and one that you will want to CAREFULLY consider.

I get a lot of people asking me about metals because I study and write about that subject a lot and I own a bunch of physical metals in my retirement holdings (100% currently).  I hold gold right now because I see the world heading into a crisis state some time before I die.  Maybe 1 year, maybe 1 decade.  I don't claim to know about the timing but the crisis will come due to all of the problems created in the economy and in society via the treasonous fraud imposed upon the global population by the few Illuminati who are masters of manipulation.  The know how our brains work and they are without morals or conscience and so they use our own genetic-driven human nature in order to control us and to steal from us and to partially enslave each one of us.  Their main tools for doing this are fiat currency and fractional reserve lending.

When their fake money supply breaks down, all paper assets will be worthless.  Of this I am 100% sure.  Von Mises called it a "crackup boom".  Others call it hyperinflation. It has been hitting the marginal economies first and worst over the past decades but it will eventually come to the dollar as well because the US dollar and the Zimbabwe dollar have the EXACT same intrinsic value (as opposed to perceived value).  And that intrinsic value is ZERO.  This is because the paper is not backed by anything.  And even if it was backed in theory, Nixon proved that such backing can be defaulted on at the convenience of the con men running the show.  He did exactly that when he closed the gold window in 1971 when Europe began a run on the dollar.  They called his bluff and he responded by telling them that they were right but that they could not have their gold back.  He also proved that the US is run by liars, something which will mos def come back to haunt us in the future.

But I also know that it can take a long time for the final crisis to show up and that nothing goes straight up or straight down.  It kind of irks me when people ask me "so I should just buy gold then huh?" in that "duhhhh" tone of voice because I know they will judge its value (and thus the value of my counsel) by the year to year volatility and perhaps even the month to month or week to week.  Why?  Because they foolishly believe that fluctuations in the dollar price of gold represents changes in the value of gold.  But the gold is not changing, the dollar is changing.  And yes, market timers (gamblers) can be in and out and end up with a net surplus of purchasing power relative to someone who just saved their stored labor in metals.  But they are not trading on gold's volatility, they are trading on volatility in the dollar.  And that can be pretty volatile now that nobody has any idea of what it should actually trade for!

Think about it.  Take $1300 dollars cash and one ozt of .999 gold (supposedly worth the same thing in the mind of most Americans) to a foreign country, preferably one that is not westernized.  Now, try to buy dinner for 10 people at a nice restaurant.  When it comes time to pay the bill, lay those $1300 paper greenbacks on the bill and thank the waiter for his wonderful service.  Then head for the door.

If you do this, don't be surprised if you get tackled on the way out for trying to skip out on your bill.  Even if you explain that they are money back where you come from, most foreign economies don't trade in dollars so the people there literally have no idea what they are worth.  They will not accept them.  They will call the police and you will be hauled off.  Now, when the manager tells you that your green paper has no value and threatens you with jail if you don't pay, pull out your 1 ozt .999 gold Philharmonic coin and offer it to him in payment.  If left with the choice of taking the gold or sending you to jail without paying him, he will take the gold because it is money the world over and it has about the same purchasing power no matter where you are.  If he has to, he will make you wait while the coin is validated by an expert but you will walk free that evening without doubt.

Bottom line is that gold is how you save for retirement.  It is a long haul savings vehicle.  It is commodity money of the best kind.  The fact that most people do not understand this only shows their ignorance on the matter. The con has a very effective propaganda machine in the US government and the main stream media.

But there is a much closer horizon event that I want to focus on in this post which is that JNUG is rapidly approaching the price target and wave form which I provided in the model from this post.  The model from that past post is reproduced below.

Compare that to the current chart below.  If you aren't beginning to sense by now that there is an order to the chaos of market moves then hopefully this amazing correlation between the model and what actually happened will help you to come to grips with it.

This is not to say I am always right or even usually right but that is because I only have so many hours in a day to spend on the analysis and only so much intelligence to aggregate it all with.  Since I don't get paid to post about it, the analysis gets whatever time I have available.  I work a real job folks!

IMO a being/God with complete omniscience and infinite power to process all the details in real time could tell you what the next stock tick would be with 100% accuracy .  Chaos only seems chaotic to we humans who are not gifted with enough capability to see the order.  Every once in awhile I get a small glimpse of the order as I see it and that's where these models come from.

The problem with JNUG is that it is a new ETF without a lot of chart history.  What happens in the past has a massive impact on what will happen in the future (BTW, IMO this is a global truism, not just related to markets...).  So now here is the chart of the junior miners which does give us enough history for an intelligent model: this really looks like a horizontal triangle in the E wave throw over stage.  Recall that this E wave should divide into 3 subwaves: a, b and c.  Well, that is exactly where it is right now.  We can only conclude that the JNUG rally is long in the tooth.  I believe that it will break down in close step with the DJIA (these waves of differing frequency are back in synch now IMO).
 

But Captain, how about more confirmation?!!

If miners are near the top then GLD should also be near some kind of top.  Below you can see that GLD is about 2/3 the way to the top rail.  Maybe it will throw over a bit but not likely as much as GDXJ or JNUG.  Also, the miners lead the metals right now by about a week.  Check out how GLD bottomed in the first couple days of June while GDXJ bottomed about 1 week earlier.  This means that the miners will peak out and perhaps even begin their downturn before metals even peak.  This phase delta helps confuse people who think that the "fundamentals" are some kind of real time law (if metals go up today then miners will too, hour by hour, etc.).  It is this phase shift between related items which results in so called non-confirmation (either bullish or bearish).  It just means that these related sectors are out of phase.

4th waves like this are gift to traders.  Why?  Because they are so observable and with multiple rail hits to guide us they are really high probability formations (once confirmed).  If this is a triangle then it will kiss or overthrow that top rail and then come crashing back into the channel.  Then you can use the top of the channel as a trigger.

A trigger on what you ask?  On JDST of course!  Once the chart comes back in, buy JDST and then set your stops just above the rail.  Speaking of JDST, here is the 9 month chart and I'm counting 5 nice waves down.  I also see that wave 5 happens to be about the size of wave one right now.  This is not a hard and fast rule but a really good thing to look for if you think the wave count is getting close.

Assuming that we are now working on 5 down, here is a zoom in of that final wave.  Bottom line is that I model the miners as entering an accelerating pull back next week in locked step with the broader markets.  JNUG will make a small fortune in this.  My conservative target price is a bounce to $32 in a big a-b-c that will last into the late summer, early fall.  Yes fellow gamblers, that's right, you can likely bank a 300% gain in just a few months as gold goes down to about $1000.  But then it will be time to flip long into JNUG again for another ride up.  Oh, its so easy to get ahead of oneself in all of this! ;  )

Now for real fun, consider the 3 minute view of JNUG.  Seems like the peak is in already @ ~ $30.60.

A reasonable strategy would be to buy into JDST ASAP and then bail immediately if you see a new low. Then look for the next likely entry point.  Again, I think the peak is likely already in but would be open to the possibility for 10-15% more downside without questioning this basic model very much.

One final non-confirmation chart of the likely impending turn in miners and then, shortly thereafter, in metals: DRD got no love today despite a whopping 22% gain at the close on JNUG.  I'm glad I dumped DRD yesterday and probably will not be coming back since it did not keep up with JNUG as I had hoped it would.  But keep this in mind about DRD: it is a real company with real work being done and its goal is to pay a dividend.  JNUG is an ETF run by leveraged money men using derivatives and options to generate the price moves.  If everything collapsed tomorrow, shares of DRD would still have value.  Those running JNUG would likely default.  So JNUG carries risk which DRD does not and that is why DRD will trade more conservatively.  I do not expect any ETF defaults until wave 3 of 3 down of the DJIA.  That will be a good number of months from now...