The main predictive chart model from that post is reproduced below. Note how I unabashedly stated that it was an ending diagonal in the 5th wave throw over according to my Elliott wave count (as if that should have any damned thing to do with the workings of a star for Heaven's sake....):
Still, having seen the Elliott wave principle in action so many times in so many places already, I felt confident enough to post such nonsensical drivel for all my friends, family and strangers to read. One thing I have learned is that one man's drivel is another man's vision. This time it looks like the chart is siding with me. Immediately following that ending diagonal call, the ending diagonal broke down suddenly and the chart squirted significantly lower. This break down confirms that the ending diagonal was the peak of this cycle. According to decades of correlation, the stock markets will soon follow suit.
In another bit of related EW fun, I posted the chart of my monthly blog hits when it hit 50k total hits back in this post. In that post I decided to try a wave count on my hit rate. The chart model from that post is reproduced below. It clearly modeled that I was working on 5 of 3 after which, by EW rules, it should see an a-b-c decline.
Fast forward to today. There are two interpretations. The first is shown below: my hit rate is now working on 5 of 1. If this is in fact the correct model, I should see the monthly hit rate easily surpass 6k and then take a big, vee style a-b-c breather into wave 2.
The second is that what I labeled as red 5/black 3 is really only 1 of 3 that is of the same degree of the first peak back in 2008. If this is the case then expect a massive jump in my hit rate over the coming months going into Q3 with no big pullback (yet) like that one modeled above.
The herd tends to tune into media sources that reinforce what is it thinking about. What liberal likes to go listen to conservative talk radio or vice-versa? Herd-think becomes self reinforcing to the point that it doesn't even want to consider anything that does not align with the current world view. This has been true all throughout history which is why Galileo's support for the heliocentric theory got him into trouble with the Roman Catholic Church. In 1633 the Inquisition convicted him of heresy and forced him to recant (publicly withdraw) his support of Copernicus. They sentenced him to life imprisonment, but because of his advanced age allowed him serve his term under house arrest at his villa in Arcetri outside of Florence.
Politicians know this which is why they pander to the whims of the polls. My message has clearly been cautionary toward the long side up until about 8 months ago when it turned into more like a general warning and then more recently a clear and focused warning about the economic and market turn which I now think is upon us. Since hit rates have clearly been increasing during this time I can only conclude that an increasing number of the herd are thinking the same things they read in my blog. These turns tend to be exponential in nature and so this second model could prove to be the correct one. If the market begins to collapse my hit rate should skyrocket into a 3rd of 3rd.
Personally I don't care much about hit rates because I don't have any ads on this site to make money off of (despite a significant time investment) and I never will. Fuck the establishment and their click view counters. I don't need them. But it will be interesting to see if the EW principle holds true over my hit rates because it will provide yet another bit of evidence that says there is something intrinsically true about the principle even if we do not have the eyes to see it yet. Some day, I think, we will.
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