DJIA trying to figure out whether to make one final dash upwards or whether to break down with gusto.

Recent chart action over many stocks strongly suggests that the top is in or very nearly so (days not weeks).   For the ending diagonal model, the C of 5th wave should be a 5-3-5 count (a-b-c).  I labeled a and b which are just above mid channel on the left side of the model.  After that the count is still up for grabs.  Blue 1 looks right but what I labeled as blue 4 could actually just be part of blue 3.  Since the peak we have only a 3 wave down movement which could lead market participants to think that it is the right time to buy the dip for the next expect move up because by now they think the market is stuck in forward gear due to the meddling of the (increasingly impotent) federal reserve.

Well, until we get confirmation it does not pay to get too cocky.  Because of action in individual stocks like BA, I am still modeling this as a failed 5th of 5 of C of 5 of the ending diagonal which has since broken down into not a 3rd wave as the chart appears without counting but rather as black 1 down.  If this is the case then the chart is riding up the orange channel line into black 2.  This could go on the rest of the day.  But if my model is correct there will be a big move down, likely a big gap that will be wave 3 down which will smash the top rail to smithereens right along with the confidence of everyone who thinks that the Bernanke Put is alive and well.

Having said that, the grey lines show other alternate paths.  If the chart goes up above the level of what I labeled red 4, the odds increase dramatically that one of the grey paths has taken control.  I think the odds are 80/20 against that.  The chart needs to set itself up so that a 3rd wave breaks the top line of the ending diagonal and I think another move further up makes that difficult.  A good way to play this if you are unsure would be to sit on the sidelines until the end of the day.  If some move back up has not taken place by that time then it starts to look bleak for the grey paths.  If this just goes sideways like this for the rest of the day then tomorrow AM will likely be that 3rd wave gap down that I am looking for.  As always, time will tell.