Sunday, June 1, 2014

Facebook correction upwards nearly done. Expect trap door to open soon.

My months old theme for FB is that they have peaked and are now in the process of reverting to the mean.  Of course nothing goes straight up or straight down.  The herd still believes that it is a good idea to buy the dip.  This is why I cautioned in that post to wait for the bounce before taking action.  It's the 3rd wave down that you really want to catch.  That is the one that moves quickly and is least likely to be "tricky" or indecisive.
 
In my prior post about Facebook (ticker FB) I continued with my theme that Facebook shares are still playing out that expected corrective sucker's bounce.  Recent chart action only strengthens my model view of this.  The shares have recently hit the 50% fib where they are meeting resistance.  Notice that this is also at the level of the throw over over the prior 4th wave triangle.  So this is an excellent time to fortify your facebook shorts.  Don't be too surprised if the bounce extends another 5% to the 61.8% fib.  But also don't be surprised if it rolls over starting right here.

If you don't care as much about reward as you do about managing risk, just wait for it to fall below the old low of ~54.50.  That will confirm that the 3rd wave down is in progress.  Your percentage gains will not be as high as if you begin shorting it up here in the 60s but there will be no doubt at that point that you are on the right side of the trade.



Zooming in, it looks like we could be in the final stages of the 5th of C:

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