Reader question: how high should we model TVIX to go?

Reader Chance Nation asked how high I think TVIX will go.  I've bandied about some numbers before in the range of 20-40x from the lows but that was just gut feel, shooting from the hip.  So here is a bit more analysis.

First, I model the S+P to be in the ending stages of the 5th wave of a massive expanding triangle.  Also, it's clear that peaks in the major indices correspond to dips in the VIX and vice-versa.  It has led to an expanding triangle in the VIX.  I thus expect the VIX to reach the top of the trend line and then over shoot just as the S+P and DJIA will likely undershoot their lower rail.  The conservative estimate is therefore a VIX that reaches 100 or perhaps 110 before the herd is all stampeded out.  

The VIX is currently at about 11.5 after bottoming recently at 11.  So the VIX should be up about 9-10x before this collapse is complete and there is possible upside to that IMO.  It is completely possible that our stock markets do the mania collapse just like the Nikkei 225 did to close lower than where the mania started.  In our case, that was 1995 when Greenspan removed all the limits from the fraudulent fractional reserve banking system by allowing checking accounts to be swept into savings accounts each day so that they could be classified as long term savings and thus used in the leveraged gambling by the scam ridden bank system.  It was easy to be called a maestro when you played games like that.  Easy until they string you up that is after the herd realizes what you did to the American people and the USA as a going concern.

TVIX is supposed to be 2x the VIX so that implies a 20 bagger.  I think that is conservative based on the fact that major institutions will be failing in the wake of the credit collapse.  In addition, the wave count is generally a better mechanism for timing entry and exit points than arbitrary numbers.  The waves will tell us, for example, if the throw over of the VIX is likely to be to 110 or 150 and that of course would make a big difference on the ultimate performance of TVIX from here.