Intel update.

Here is my prior Intel post.  Instead of finishing with a 3 wave a-b-c as expected, Intel turned into an ending diagonal with 5 rail bumps.  Not only that, but the throw over has been a doozy.  The stock is now going nearly straight up.    I think we all know this is not going to last for very long.  I think we are within a couple of days of the peak (just in time to roll over and crash after the holiday break).

Choppy action is always difficult to put a good count on but we are now getting some really good hints on where this is going and it looks like an ending diagonal to me.  One hint is that a of 5 came close to the top rail during the A wave but then took a step back into the B wave in order to get a running start at it with the C wave.  Another hint is that there is a huge gap in the count, obviously the work of 3 of C.  I suspect that the triangle I bracketed near the very top is 4 of 5 of C.  20-30 cents more and it should be complete.  That's when I expect a rapid turn around as all of these new hands who bought in at nosebleed prices will get caught leveraged and long.  Remember - these prices are not coming from earned money but rather from borrowed money chasing them up.

 The volume chart tells the real story on Intel shares.  Since 2008, volume has been on a downward skid and the recent rally since late 2012 has done nothing to change that.  There is clearly declining interest in this stock.  When it rolls over next week I expect to see volume begin to spike again as the recent weak hands fight each other to get out of the shares without taking a loss on their recent purchase of this "kant miss" stock.

Some of these big techs are rallying for no good reason.  I guess some people believe that hyper inflation is going to accompany the rising interest rates and they want to be buying up the commodity stocks (hey, computer chips are certainly a commodity these days...) before chip prices go to the moon.

Sorry folks, I don't buy that logic.  Poor people do not buy high end chips and Intel's bleeding edge fabs cost many billions of dollars.  Besides, if business was all that good, then why did Intel stop construction on a new $5 billion factory back in January?  The last time I saw this was, umm, oh yeah, that's right. It was back in 2001, just after the trap door opened on the economy and on the stock markets.  They stopped building a huge Austin development center which then sat idle until it was demolished several years later.  How much do you want to bet that Fab 42 in Arizona never opens?  Maybe they should never have gotten "Obama's blessing" on it back in 2011.  Everything that con man touches turns to $hit.  Not necessarily because he is actually any worse than the crap con man presidents before him but rather because he took the job as the con grew long in the tooth.  Like Yellen will be remembered as the disposable fed, Obama will go down as the disposable president.