BBRY Update

In this post I modeled that BBRY could be facing a breakout.  But that should have happened by now if it was going to.  If the Dow is getting ready to dive, what stocks will be doing well?  The answer is none of them.  I now suspect that BBRY is being set up for an ending diagonal.  When it goes below the lower rail and we see $4, $3, or even $2, know in advance that it is a clear buying opportunity with huge upside potential.   BBRY is not going to BK and $4 or lower is pricing for BK.

Note that BBRY is not officially a mania yet but that completing this ending diagonal with a nasty throw under would do it.  Check out the long term chart below.   The black horizontal line is the starting point of BBRY's incredible, unsustainable tech bubble run.  That line is at $4.00.  So, a close below it would represent the completion of a mania as defined by Prechter in "Conquer The Crash".   Based on the wave shape and upon what I think is a top in the broader markets, I now model that BBRY will indeed finish its mania.

But please keep in mind that when manias complete they are full of short sellers who have to buy.  Even if the company doesn't actually recover in a meaningful way on an operational basis, the shares can spike 5x from the oversold lows.  I think BBRY will improve its operational performance over the coming years so if you can get shares below $4 (and hopefully more like $3 or even $2 in a hard capitulation dip) then you will have an excellent long term capital gains candidate in your portfolio.