Monday, June 2, 2014

$18.91 is a good technical entry point for FAZ.

My current model says that banking stocks actually entered a bear market back in late Feb of this year.  The FAZ chart traced out wave 1 up (which means wave 1 down for financials) but it was an ending diagonal and they are know for retracing nearly their entire length which is what I think it has done in this case.

If my model is correct then we are very, very near the end of the 2nd wave pullback in FAZ which implies that a rapid break down in financials should be forthcoming, and soon.  There is no guarantee of course that this model is correct but there is an intelligent bet to be made here:  Just buy at the current level of $18.91 and then use a lower low than the start of wave 1 as a stop (market sell).  That level stands at about $18.65.  So for the risk of 26 cents worth of downside (about 1.3%), you stand to gain potentially hundreds of percent on the upside.  Asymmetry like that is how you judge a bet.  It doesn't mean you will win.  It simply means that if you do then the rewards will be very great and that you will know very quickly whether or not it was the right bet.

Not every entry point has the same odds of course.  The clear 5 wave down pattern is indicative of 3rd waves and C wave and I think this is an example of a C wave.  Good luck, fellow gamblers.


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