Saturday, April 8, 2017

[MCD] is now at a potential major peak.

In this post from 2016 my model predicted that MCD would soon be trading lower, probably to fill the gap.

While the chart was tricky, putting in a higher high before the pullback, it eventually bottomed at around $110 which is not as low as the gap fill I modeled.  Going forward, if the shares can break out of the current double top which is being formed by resistance at the middle tine of Andrew's pitchfork then it can head up toward $140 before becoming a massive short candidate.  But it could also already have peaked by my primary (red count).  I'm sure you can easily read the 5 wave move up into red A and then the pullback into red B at the level of the prior 4th of red A and then 5 more waves up that have already or very nearly peaked (within a buck) into red C.

Unlike a normal stock "call" such as the emotional kind you get from the likes of Cramer, my views are based on the analysis of the Elliott wave patterns of the stock chart and nothing else.  Importantly, while Cramer will tell you to hang in there and trust the CEO and other patently insane things, I will say that my model will only allow for about $2-$3 higher price than the current price of $129.96 before I will say that the odds have shifted to the model being likely wrong.  That's only about 2% risk on a short sale initiated as of the last trade on this chart with upside of 30-50% or more in a straight short.

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