Thursday, June 30, 2016

Here's one for people to think about. [JNJ]

In the backlink I called JNJ down to the $88 price level from its then price of about $100.

Why did I think it was going to happen?
  • Was it the news?
  • Was it an expert on CNBC?
  • Was it an earnings report or some press release by the company?
  • Was it intuition or a gut feeling I had?
No, no, no and no.

The predictive model was based on Elliott wave analysis of the chart and nothing else.  The current chart is below.  The actual low of that wave was $82 and for about 20 minutes only.  The more traded low was right at $90.

 When a magician performs incredible seeming feats live in front of an audience, the people are amazed because they believe that there is a chance something will go wrong.  After all, making an elephant disappear or a pretty woman turn into a tiger must be a tricky business (no pun intended).  But in reality the magician can promise magical outcomes because he is in control all the time.  The biggest illusion he performs is to make the people believe that he's not in control.  It's a trick!

But Elliott wave are not magic.  They are not an illusion or a trick.  Elliott waves simply model herding behavior.  The fact that I have shown the ability to do this time and time again in this blog has to tell you there more than a little something to the Elliott wave principle.  Of course the analysis is not always straight forward and so it really does take a bunch of years to be any good at wave counting.  The rules are simple but anyone who has seriously tried it for themselves will testify that it is very easy to zig when you should have zagged because this is a controlled chaos we are playing with here, not a digital thing.

This is why I think you should try my paid subscriber service.  I have a proven track record of winning and at only $39.95 per month you get multiple charts and trading models per day.  OK, maybe I've just gotten lucky.  So here's a high odds trade for you to watch (or take action on if you are an experienced trader).  Unlike the magician who can promise amazing things, I am not in control.  I'm just a careful observer and a student of human behavior as well as an accomplished Elliottician.  So there is certainly more risk in my predictions than the magician assumes when he performs his magic.  Risk is all about knowing the odds.  The stock market is also about knowing the odds and it amazes me the number of people who do not realize that both investing and trading are gambling.  I'm taking a calculated risk in providing a chart model to you that is supposed to be a proof point for my ability.  I could have just cherry picked one of many winning predictions I have done in the past but nothing shows confidence like walking the tight rope without a net. 

My wave model says that JNJ is at or near a significant peak.  Maybe there will be a double top put in this week but pretty soon, perhaps as early as this week but more likely next week, JNJ is very likely to begin tumbling hard with a best case pullback likely to the $85 level.  Nobody is saying this is possible to happen right now because there really are not many Elliotticians actively/publicly practicing.  Thus we are left with TV "experts" and other horribly unreliable information sources to serve as our guide.  The JNJ is my free gift to you.  If it plays out like I model that it will, perhaps you should think about joining my service.  The subscribe button is at the top of this page.

There were many charts I could have shown but I happened to pick one that was not something you could just buy.  With that acknowledged, most of the picks on the subscriber's site are either stocks or ETFs (forward and reverse).  In other words, they are easy to play. 

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