Thursday, June 23, 2016

A good read on investing by Avi Gilburt

In this new article Avi Gilburt lays out the case why investing based on news and "fundamentals" is a waste of time and in fact a negative.  the quick summary:

  • Humans tend to want to know the reason for things even when such knowledge is essentially unknown and unknowable even by the greatest minds that ever lived.
    • Meaning of life
    • Why anyone would worship either Hillary or Trump
    • What the effect of certain news will certainly be on the price of an asset
    • etc.
  • Quote:"an honest investor in the metals market has finally come to grips with this being a fallacy, as markets do not move linearly or based upon “reasons.”  In fact, we have seen markets often move opposite to the reasonable perspective, such as in the case of QE."
  •  Manipulation is just another made up reason for stock price movement, no more or less reliable as a future price predictor than "news".
  • The most powerful players in the game, central banks, cannot achieve their stated goals.  Think Abenomics and 2-3% inflation at the US fed.  Players, such as the so called PPT or Plunge Protection Team are just part of the herd and their actions are already built into the wave model.  They are not Gods by any means.  More like the wizards of Ozt.

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