In the backlink ORIG had touched the low $3 and then popped 18%. I again count this as likely being 5 waves down to complete the big 5 wave collapse that began in late 2013. I model that 18% pop on more than 2x expected EPS as the start of the next big rally with minimum price target of $9-$10.
Backing out again to the high level model, here is the update. It shows a very high probability of having completed 5 down, especially with the massive upside surprise on earnings and also the massive repatriation of 78 million shares from corrupt POS company Dryships. Folks, ORIG just bought itself out of bondage on the cheap, a very very smart and conservative move by those running ORIG. Soon enough the divvy will be reinstated at something more reasonable like 8% and institutions will want back in. Buy the dip folks. There is blood in the streets of oil patch inc. This is nearly as big a wipe out as SPWR was in solar and you know what happened after that bottomed.
Zooming way in to just black 5, I have the following count. Note how the spike kissed the falling red line from below. If this count is right, very early next week we should see that red falling line breached with gusto. I originally bought some of this in the 4.40 range but was stopped out for a loss near $4. However, I was able to get back in at 3.60 soon after. This likely needs to move up nearly from the open on Monday in order for this count to be correct. But you can also see how fast this is moving now in percentage terms so if you blink it will be back up at $6.
Again, this is not some money losing startup. This company actually makes money even with cheap oil and it typically shares the profits with investors in the form of dividends. Still, I could be off by a wave here at the bottom so I still have cash to buy more if we get lower prices. This could happen if we end up with an inclining double bottom from here.
Sunday, August 9, 2015
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