Tuesday, August 11, 2015

[JNUG] update

Per the backlink, whose model is reproduced below, the JNUG run might still have legs.




In fact, per original B of 4 model, whose model is reproduced below, the rally can continue up and fill the gap at $11.70.  Amazing shit, these Elliott waves, yeah?



Below is the current snapshot showing that JNUG has accelerated into the afternoon, obviously gaining some momentum here.  The red rectangle represents the gap fill target which has a good chance of happening if the chart can break past the $10 psych barrier.  Note that the blue vertical is where C would be the same length as A.  Since this is another common C wave termination point, don't count on "$11.70 for sure".  Count the waves!!  It should form 5 up from green B.



Under no circumstances should we ignore or forget that triangles are penultimate and so this rally is most likely a sucker's rally IMO.  Thinking people will give credit to the fact that I modeled this to occur even before the China devaluation news.  Since it played out much like one of my models, the odds are also high that this same model will be correct in other aspects, one of which is that it is LIKELY a 4th wave and not a real bottom.

Bottom line: play it but don't get played by it.  Use stops or just count 5 up and bail and then only get back in if you see a-b-c back down and then a higher high instead of the 5 bigger waves downward I expect.  It is still possible that green B is WC2 of a larger wave structure up which is why I'm keeping loose stops on this trade (the DRD version of it mentioned before).  I might not max out my profit but I will make a nice gain even if this eventually goes to a lower low and THAT's when I will throw some real weight into JNUG/DRD/Etc.

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