[ABX] update

Below is the model from the backlink.  It suggested that wave 3 of 5 down was complete and wave 4 of 5 down as well.  That implied a move down to 5 of 5 in the $5 range next.

 


Instead, ABX seems to be more closely following Avi's model where the recent low was not 3 of 5 but rather 3 of 3 of 5.  Thus the bounce we just experienced was 4 of 3 of 5.  Look at the fib calculator when positioned to assume that the W3 which just bottomed was blue 3.  This shows that the bounce came right to the 38.2 fib before finding strong selling again.   At least so far, it could not even rise to fill the gap.  It also put in a sharply declining double top. 

If this model is correct, the next real trading opportunity should come when ABX hits the low $6 range again at which time the real orange 3 (3 of 5) should be in and an even bigger rally should take place, perhaps to blue 4, perhaps a bit higher to the high 8s as shown.  Folks, these rallies are beginning to represent real percentage moves and so trading them is well worth your time.

If this model holds, the final wipe out for ABX will be in the $5 range.  Note that the analysts are already upgrading these mining giants.  History shows that they are generally either early or late in these calls.  Only EWers have any kind of track record for calling the exact turns.  In the most recent upgrade, Deutschebank cited cost reductions, sales of assets in order to reduce debt load and other actions that basically amount to deleveraging which position the company for sustainability at current gold and silver prices.

We are now at the point where the  EWI and Avi models should be diverging.  EWI expects the  gold rally to move up to 1300+ right now.  It specifically does not expect gold to hit a lower low like Avi's model does.   I have stated a clear lean toward Avi's model for many months now and in fact it is pretty much all I reference in these pages.  But I do not write EWI off easily.  But now it is crunch time for EWI IMO.