Monday, August 22, 2016

[JNK] update

In a debt Ponzi, the engine is, well, debt.  Thus it pays to see what the marginal debt is likely to do based on its EW model.  What I see is that junk debt weakened into Feb 2016 but then caught a bid which has now move it to the 50 fib of its collapse. It has done so in 3 waves which ended with a wedge.  So I count WC to be complete and I expect to see JNK turn back down as the next bad news in the collapse of the debt Ponzi is revealed this coming week.

At least that is what the chart model is telling me.  Nobody knows the future with certainty but some of us at least know the odds.  And whether or not it actually occurs that a near term peak is in, the odds say one is likely in.  When gambling, what is more important than knowing the odds?

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