Wednesday, August 17, 2016

A potentially bullish housing chart.

This chart makes me wonder if all the forecasts of gloom and doom are wrong headed.  The peak of US housing permits was in the 1970s and since then we saw five ultra clear waves down and then what looks like a horizontal triangle to me into wave 2 or B and then five more ultra clear waves down into what could easily count as a C wave.  Soon we will know what is going on because now we have three up off the bottom and then what could count as a 3 wave pullback into wave 4.

The market needs to determine if this recent low is going to hold and then to create a higher high or if this will now begin to plummet like never before into the real 3 of C. 

We saw how fast the declines have been but if 3 of C is actually unfolding then the slope should be even more negative, falling at a much faster rate which potentially includes gaps.  The only way I could see something like that happening would be if some major and unexpected event happened.  It could be the black swan event that many are expecting.

Then again, the worst could be behind us and we are now working on the next big wave up.  We should know very soon if it is the negative scenario.

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