Wednesday, April 1, 2015

[JNUG] threat model

JNUG is at a critical level right now between turning lower or breaking out.  Below is the threat model.  So far it is encountering resistance at the 38.2 fib.  In the bull case shown in blue it will probably have to fall back and get a running start into wave 3.   In the bear case it will fall to a lower low as JDST finishes C of E.  The key is how the pullback looks but I already don't like the way this could be turning into a rising wedge as shown.  After rising JUNG up based on yesterdays model which expected a JNUG rally, I actually flipped short into JDST at $10.80 with super tight stops at $10.76.  If I get stopped out then it will be a very small loss and I will look for another entry point into JNUG.

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