Wednesday, April 29, 2015

[USLV] update

At the backlink I was modeling an imminent 2nd wave bottoming.  I've actually been holding JNUG since that post.  New job does not have the same flexibility as the prior one and so I'll be doing less posting and less trading in general.  In any case, it means I cannot sit there and grub every penny out of a trade like I could before.  I'll be forced to have wider stops and catch more general trends.  But the strategy will be the same: stay in cash until I get an entry supported by an EW model and then use stops if the model breaks.

In any case, below is the zoomed in model from the backlink.



Below is the current zoomed out snapshot.  The main delta between model and actual was that actual contained a deep vee 2nd was put in which then formed an inclining double bottom.  As I have pointed out many times on this blog, the initial 2md wave following a trend reversal is often a deep vee and so if I had had more time to think about it I probably should have modeled a deep vee there.  In any case, I did not get shaken out of JNUG.

If this model is correct then we should see USLV begin to move up sharply in the next few trading days.  I like USLV a lot at these levels.  JNUG will not likley trade much different than USLV in aggregate.

Initial bounce target is a window in the $55 range.


3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Captain,

Do you still see USLV making an ascending uptrend after the recent sharp selloff yesterday (Thursday)?

The Captain said...

I think it will trade in line with jnug. There is a definite threat there but it is not going to let us know easily.


http://economati.blogspot.com/2015/05/jnug-threat-model.html


If it wants to f--- us one last time it will gap down on Monday. You cannot really predict the future. You can simply use stops when you know the model is bust. Below USLV $17.50 the model is certainly bust.

I'm holding a half position over the weekend because I think there is as much a chance of gap up on Monday as gap down. They have been doing their level best to make M+M unattractive but the recent sell off could simply be deep vee wave 2. We'll probably know how it is going to shake out on Monday but metals are pretty well hated right now so that does bode well at some point.

Anonymous said...

It gapped up Monday! I got out with a nice 1K gain ... thanks for the analysis captain.

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